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The big drop in oil prices is great news for consumers and the war on inflation. It just may take a little longer to help. Oil is rallying Friday . But these gains — which come amid speculation that production cuts may be proposed at the upcoming OPEC meeting to stem the decline in prices — cannot conceal that oil is in a bear market , down 20% since late September. The reasons for the decline include higher-than-expected increases in stockpiles of crude oil in the U.S. and a slowdown in demand from China. Not even the Israel-Hamas war is driving oil up. Oil is $9 lower than when Hamas invaded Israel, S & P Global vice chairman Daniel Yergin said on “Squawk Box.” “There is no geopolitical fear premium in the price of oil at all,” he told CNBC’s Becky Quick . This drop in oil is not good news for oil investors. Chevron was the lone stock in the S & P 500 at a 52-week low Thursday, but it’s great news for those looking to advance the “inflation is declining” narrative. The price of oil and gasoline figures into the consumer price index (CPI) and other inflation indicators in several ways. Gasoline prices are about 4% of the overall index. Additionally, higher oil prices contribute to inflation directly by increasing the cost of inputs, such as food packaging. In testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee in March 2022, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell said that, as a rule of thumb, every $10 per barrel increase in the price of crude oil raises inflation by 0.2% and sets back economic growth 0.1%. It would seem reasonable to assume the opposite is true: falling oil prices will decrease inflation. Reasonable, but it may not be perfectly symmetrical. Energy analyst Andy Lipow tells me that while it is reasonable to assume falling oil prices will reduce inflation, falling prices may not reduce inflation as much or as fast as rising prices increase inflation. “When oil prices are rising, suppliers are very quick to pass through the price of gasoline and diesel fuel to consumers,” he said. “When oil prices fall, we do not see gasoline and diesel prices fall as quickly — certainly not at the retail level.” He said this lag happens across all users of energy. “Industrial users of energy are also very quick to pass through the increased price of oil in the cost of the goods they manufacture and services they provide. Railroads and trucking companies impose fuel surcharges quite quickly — measured in days and weeks rather than in months.” And while railroads and large trucking companies can reduce their fuel surcharges quickly, “in some cases higher costs stick around for local deliveries.” Bottom line: “In theory, prices should be coming down. In reality, it takes a long time to happen.”
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