Fed’s Waller ‘leaning toward’ a rate cut, but worries about inflation

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday he is anticipating an interest rate cut in December but is concerned about recent trends on inflation that could change his mind.

“Based on the economic data in hand today and forecasts that show that inflation will continue on its downward path to 2 percent over the medium term, at present I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting,” Waller said in remarks before a monetary policy forum in Washington.

However, he noted that the “decision will depend on whether data that we will receive before then surprises to the upside and alters my forecast for the path of inflation.”

Waller cited recent data indicating that progress on inflation may be “stalling.”

In October, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures price index, showed headline inflation moving up to 2.3% annually and core prices, which exclude the cost of food and energy, moving up to 2.8%. The Fed targets a 2% rate.

Though the data was in line with Wall Street expectations, it showed an increase from the prior month and was evidence that despite the progress, the central bank’s goal has proved elusive.

“Overall, I feel like an MMA fighter who keeps getting inflation in a choke hold, waiting for it to tap out yet it keeps slipping out of my grasp at the last minute,” Waller said, referring to mixed martial arts. “But let me assure you that submission is inevitable — inflation isn’t getting out of the octagon.”

Markets expect the Fed to lop another quarter percentage point off its benchmark overnight borrowing rate when it meets Dec. 17-18. That would follow a half-point cut in September and a quarter-point reduction in November.

“As of today, I am leaning toward continuing the work we have started in returning monetary policy to a more neutral setting,” Waller said.

Waller said he will watch incoming employment and inflation data closely. The Bureau of Labor Statistics this week will release reports on job openings and nonfarm payrolls, the latter coming after gains in October came in at a paltry 12,000, due largely to labor strikes and weather issues.

Even with the slowing progress on inflation, Waller said broader economic health has him feeling like it will be appropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.

“After we cut by 75 basis points, I believe the evidence is strong that policy continues to be significantly restrictive and that cutting again will only mean that we aren’t pressing on the brake pedal quite as hard,” he said.