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Sheikh Hasina’s resignation as PM and departure from Bangladesh creates a plethora of uncertainties for India. Over one-and-a-half decade, she was New Delhi’s staunchest ally. India-Bangladesh ties during this period reached unprecedented levels. From cross-border trade and transit arrangements to security cooperation and people-to-people exchanges, bilateral relations experienced a golden period.But Hasina’s ouster puts all of those gains under a cloud. The protests that forced her from office also had an anti-India flavour since Hasina and New Delhi were perceived to be joined at the hip. Given this context, these are five challenges India could face in its Bangladesh policy in the near future:
- Nature of interim govt:
Bangladesh army chief Waker-uz-Zaman has taken charge, and so far he has made the right noises in proposing an interim govt with buy-in from all political parties in Bangladesh. But the nature of this interim govt remains unclear as yet. Nor is there a time-table for fresh elections. This will keep New Delhi guessing. The interim govt in Dhaka will naturally have a big impact on Bangladesh’s future political direction, which in turn will impact ties with India. New Delhi needs to move fast to build bridges with the incoming regime. - Hasina dependence: New Delhi’s staunch backing of Hasina over the last decade meant that it had little to no engagement with Bangladeshi opposition groups. This puts India at a disadvantage in the current scenario. It will be challenging for New Delhi to blunt the current anti-India sentiment prevalent in Bangladesh. Much diplomatic spadework would be needed to regain lost ground.
- Future of transit: Transit and trans-shipment arrangements with Bangladesh may be revised by the incoming regime in Dhaka. India needs these for better logistics supply to its Northeast. New Delhi, therefore, must work with the interim govt to ensure their continuity.
- Jamaat and Pakistan factor: It is likely that Jamaat-e-Islami may have some influence over the interim govt in Dhaka. After all, Jamaat foot-soldiers were reportedly part of the protests against Hasina. India’s equation with Jamaat has been uneasy, as was seen during the last BNP-Jamaat govt in Bangladesh. Plus, Jamaat could open the door for the return of Pakistan in Bangladeshi polity – something that Hasina had strongly kept out. That in turn will have an impact on India’s border security with Bangladesh.
- China challenge: Finally, China has been desperately trying to make inroads in Bangladesh. It obviously has deep pockets and can prop up the post-Hasina regime. China getting a strong foothold in Bangladesh is a huge problem for India. It would mean that India would be strategically surrounded by inimical, unfriendly or ambivalent neighbours – China and Pakistan in the west and north, a communist-led govt in Nepal, Taliban’s Afghanistan in the far west, an anti-India Maldives in the Indian Ocean, and at best an ambivalent regime in Bangladesh. That’s certainly not good news for India’s strategic and security calculus.
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