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AIMIM candidate Kirti Dongre during the nomination filing rally for the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections.
| Photo Credit: ANI
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s controversial slogan, “Batenge toh katenge, ek rahenge toh safe rahenge (Divided we perish, united we stay safe)”, used during his campaign in Maharashtra, has sparked tension within the Mahayuti alliance, with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) president Ajit Pawar opposing it. The slogan also contradicts the Shiv Sena’s recent efforts to gain Muslim votes, which, as per the 2024 general elections data, largely favour the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently altered the slogan to “Ek hai to safe hai (unity brings safety)”.
The controversy over the slogan and the opposition to it within the Mahayuti is understandable given that in 10% of Maharashtra’s constituencies (31 seats), Muslims make up more than 20% of the people on electoral rolls and therefore have the potential to influence the outcome in those seats.
These seats are primarily concentrated in the relatively affluent and urban areas of the Mumbai-Thane region. Table 1A reveals that most of these 31 seats are located in Mumbai Suburban (10), Mumbai City (four), and Thane districts (three).
Table 1A | District-wise number of seats with more than 20% Muslim population
Collectively, the Mumbai-Thane region accounts for 17 of these seats, followed by the Marathwada region with six (Table 1B). Notably, 19 of these seats are in urban areas, nine are in semi-urban areas, and only a few are in rural regions (Table 1C).
Table 1B | Region-wise number of seats with more than 20% Muslim population
Table 1C | Urban-rural split of constituencies with more than 20% Muslim population
In the Mumbai-Thane region, the Mahayuti alliance led in only 35 segments in the 2024 general elections, down from the 44 seats that the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena coalition secured in the 2019 Assembly elections. In contrast, the MVA alliance led in 24 seats in the 2024 general elections, three times more than the eight seats won by the Congress-NCP coalition in the 2019 Assembly elections, as shown in the Data Point on Monday.
The Mahayuti alliance aims to reverse this decline in the upcoming polls, and the slogan could negatively influence its efforts to regain this lost ground.
In the upcoming Assembly polls (Table 2), the NCP and the Shiv Sena have been allocated 17 of these 31 seats, with the BJP fielding candidates in 14 of them. In the MVA, the Congress has fielded candidates in 18 of them, the Shiv Sena (UBT) in 10, the NCP (SP) in two and the rest have gone to smaller partners. In seven seats, multiple partners from the MVA alliance have put up candidates.
Table 2| The table shows the seat allocations among parties/alliances for the upcoming polls
Notably, 15 of the MVA’s candidates in these seats are Muslims (friendly fights), as opposed to only five in the Mahayuti alliance.
When we restrict past electoral comparisons strictly to these 31 seats, there is a drastic decline in the Mahayuti’s numbers. Table 3A, 3B and 3C show the seats secured/led in the 2014 and 2019 Assembly polls and the 2024 general elections. In 2014, when all the parties fought independently, the BJP secured 12 of these seats. The undivided Shiv Sena got eight and the Congress, seven.
Table 3A | Seats secured by parties in the 2014 Assembly Elections among the 31 constituencies
In 2019, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance secured 16 of these seats, with the Congress-NCP getting 13. In the 2024 general elections, the roles reversed: the MVA led in as many as 24 Assembly segments and the Mahayuti was reduced to just five.
Table 3B | Seats secured by parties/alliances in the 2019 Assembly polls among the 31 constituencies
Table 3C | Seats secured by alliances/parties in the 2024 GE among the 31 constituencies
The dark horse in these 31 seats is the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which has fielded candidates in 13 constituencies and remains unaffiliated with either coalition. The party not only won/led in two of these seats during the 2014 and 2019 Assembly elections and the 2024 general elections each but also secured significant vote shares in other constituencies where it lost. This has positioned AIMIM as a potential vote spoiler (Table 4).
Table 4 | Vote share secured by All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the 31 constituencies in 2014 AE, 2019 AE and 2024 GE
With inputs from Nitika Francis and Padma Sowndarya
Source: ECI, Data Development lab, LokDhaba, Religous classifications are from Raphael Susewind.
Seats with High Muslim population were identified based on estimations by Raphael Susewind using electoral rolls data. For this analysis, only seats with over 20% Muslim population were considered.
sambavi.p@thehindu.co.in
vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in
Published – November 20, 2024 07:00 am IST
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